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Agri Picks Daily Technical Report 17 June 2019 Commodities – Geojit Financial

Spices

* Cardamom on MCX ended on a positive note on Friday, with the near month futures hitting a fresh all time high on weather outlook. Delay in arrival of monsoons and weak rainfall in key growing regions bolstered prices.

* Guatemala’s cardamom exports increased by 43.8% in value to USD 210.5 million in Q1 2019 year-on-year and it increased by 5% in volume to 13,960 tonnes.

* Trade officials and Spices Board India expect cardamom production to fall to a two-decade low in 2019-20 (Jul-Jun) to as low as 8,000 tn. For the current year, they ex-pect the crop at 12,000-13,000 tn. However, for the current year, the farm ministry sees the output at 22,000 tn, according to its second advance estimates released by on Friday, as against 28,000 tn in the previous year.

* Jeera futures slipped on Friday, stretching previous day’s losses, while in the major spot market of Unjha was affected owing to heavy rains.

* According to the farm ministry’s second advance estimates, jeera output is seen at 423,000 tn in 2018-19 (Jul-Jun), down 44% from the previous estimate.

* Coriander continued trading in narrow ranges on Friday. In the key spot market of Kota too, trades were rather steady. Lower arrivals amidst subdued demand held prices in thin ranges.

* Warehouse stocks at the exchange rose to 7,258 tn on Wednesday from 7,079 tn a week ago, exchange data showed.

* Arrivals of coriander in spot market of Kota, Rajasthan, during Jun 1-11, were around 591.5 tn, down 40% from the year-ago period, according to agmarknet.gov.in.

* Govt. estimates coriander output in 2018-19 to be at 756000 tonnes versus 784000 tonnes.

* Turmeric stretched losses on Friday. The near month June futures on NCDEX fell more than one per cent, while in the spot market weak demand weighed on.

* NCDEX on Tuesday marked 1445 tonnes turmeric for staggered delivery in June.

* Govt ups 2018-19 turmeric output estimate to 1.39 million tonnes versus 1.15 million tonnes.

* Govt ups 2018-19 pepper output estimate to 62000 tonnes compared to 46000 tonnes.

Oilseeds

* All the constituents in the oilseed basket inched up on Friday.

* Most active July Soybean contract extended its gains due to delay in monsoon rains in key growing areas is likely to result in slow pace of sowing of soybean crops. Farmers started planting the crop in Karnataka, Gujarat and Uttarakhand. Acreage under soybean was 37,000 ha so far, lower than 75,000 ha from a year ago, farm ministry data showed.

* Mustard futures July futures on NCDEX settled higher on back of shortage of stocks in wholesale markets as peak arrival season has drawn to a close.

* Soymeal exports in May were at 18,470 tn, sharply lower than 76,026 tn a year ago, as per data released by The Solvent Extractors’ Association of India.

* In its third advance estimate, the farm ministry increased soybean production estimate to 13.74 mln tn in 2018-19 from 13.69 mln tn pegged earlier. At 13.74 mln tn, the oilseed output will be a sharp 25.7% higher on year.

* As per SEA latest report, India’s castor oil exports plunged 30.5 per cent year-on-year to 36,669 tonnes in October, Slowdown in demand from China, which accounts for around 70 per cent of India’s non-edible oil exports, dragged overall exports lower. Castor oil exports were 3 per cent lower month-on-month, the data showed. The outlook for exports is bearish as demand in the global market is unlikely to gather pace in the coming months.

* According to Indonesia Palm Oil Association (GAPKI), exports of palm oil (CPO and PKO) from Indonesia rose 15 percent in March 2019 y-o-y to 2.78 MMT from 2.40 MMT in March 2018. Exports of palm oil (CPO and PKO) were rose 0.36 m-o-m in March at 2.78 MMT compared to Feb 2019 at 2.77 MMT. Stocks of palm oil in Mar 2019 fell to 2.43 MMT from 2.5 MMT in Feb, down 2.8 percent m-o-m.

* India is likely to receive near-normal monsoon rains in 2019 at 96% of the long period average of 89 cm, India Meteorological Department said. There is a 39% chance of normal monsoon rains this year, a 32% chance of below-normal rains, and a 10% chance of above-normal rains, according to the forecast. Chances of near-normal monsoon rains this year are high as the El Nino is weak, and is seen weakening further in the monsoon season.

* USDA expects India’s oilseeds production higher by 8% in 2019/20 in expectation of normal weather condi-tion. Higher oilseeds supply may increase oilseeds meal production by 5.5% to 18 million tones. It projects oil meals exports at 3.2 million tonne with an increase of 10% in normal market condition and competitive pricing.

* Soymeal exports volume of India is recorded at 12,265 tonnes in April 2019 lower than 68,264 tonnes in April 2018. Overall Soymeal shipments in financial year (2018-19) stood at 1,358,083 tonne higher from 1,1878,18 tonnes in FY 2017-18. Total shipment of Rapeseed meal in April 2019 declined at 94,462 tons against 97,891 tonnes in April 2018. However, cumulative exports volume of Rapeseed meal is recorded higher at 1,094,015 tonnes during FY 2018-19 against 663,988 tonnes in previous year supported by major buyers like South Korea, Vietnam and Thailand.

* India’s mustard output for 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) is seen at 8.4 mln tn, higher than last year’s 8.3 mln tn, ac-cording to the second advance estimates released by the farm ministry.

* Malaysia’s palm oil exports were up 2% on month at 1.65 million metric tons in April, the Malaysian Palm Oil Board said. Whereas, Malaysia’s End-April Palm Oil Stocks 2.73M Tons; Down 6.6% .

* Inventories of processed palm oil in Malaysia fell 13.4% on month to 984,075 mln tn in the reporting month, while crude palm oil stock was at 1.46 mln tn, down 8.2%, according to Malaysia Palm Oil Board data.

* Malaysia’s palm oil exports during the June 1-10 period are estimated down 32.6% on month at 377,235 metric tons, cargo surveyor SGS (Malaysia) Bhd.

* The government on Monday started procurement of sunflower seed, harvested in the 2018-19 (Jul-Jun) rabi season in Haryana, under the price support scheme. Under the scheme, the agency procures the crop if market prices fall below the minimum support price. The government’s nodal agency NAFED started procur-ing the crop in Ambala, Shahabad, and Panchkula districts in Haryana. It bought 103 tn of sunflower (seed) on June 3.

Cotton

* Cotton prices expected to remain steady for few coming days due to the effect of downfall of international market prices. However, the international markets have fallen quite sharply during the last two weeks but gaining momentum since last two days due to adverse weather conditions prevailing in US affecting the planting progress.

* High velocity wind and hailstorm which lashed the cotton crop in Bathinda and Mansa districts of Punjab. The cotton plants got damaged in over a dozen villages in in both the cotton-producing districts due to hailstorm in in Budhlada, Talwandi Sabo, Maur and Sangat areas.

* In Punjab, cotton crop has been sown in nearly 4 lakh hectares and may go up by 10,000 hectares as the sowing is still going on, according to the State Agriculture department. The acreage was nearly 2.84 lakh hectares in 2018. In Haryana, farmers had sown cotton in 6.35 lakh hectares till June 6. Last year the total area under cotton was 6.61 lakh hectares.

* The International Cotton Advisory Committee sees global cotton prices under pressure due to esca-lating concerns over the US-China trade spat and on expectations of higher stocks. The committee sees global production in 2019-20 to rise 7% on year to around 27.6 mln tn due to an increase in global yields and consumption is expected to rise by 1% to 27.3 mln tn.

* The Chinese government has sold around 224,000 tn of cotton from its state reserves during May 5-Jun 6 against 262,800 tn offered at the auction. This year, the daily sale quota has been set around 10,000 tn compared with the previous two years’ 30,000 tn because the total stock fell to 2.5 mln tn ahead of the auctions, compared with 7.0 mln tn a few years ago. In 2018, the country had sold around 2.5 mln tn cotton from its reserves. The Asian giant has been drawing down its massive cotton reserves built over the past three years.

* Cotton Outlook raised its estimates for 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) global cotton crop estimate by 308,000 tn to 27.36 mln tn, led by likely increases in the US and Uzbekistan. The agency has raised the pro-duction estimate for the US by 303,000 tn to 5.04 mln tn. It has, however, maintained its estimate for India’s 2019-20 (Aug-Jul) cotton production at 6.13 mln tn.

* Cotton outlook has raised its 2019-20 global cotton consumption view to 26.69 mln tn from 26.64 mln tn forecast in the previous month. Global ending stock levels of cotton are now seen at 667,000 tn, compared with 409,000 tn projected in April.

* The USDA has estimated that India’s 2018-19 cotton production would be 34.525 million bales, 7.5% higher than the estimate of CAI of 32.1 million bales, revised downward by from its previous one of 32.8 million bales. Cotton Association of India (CAI) strongly objected to the cotton production estimates issued by the USDA.

* India’s 2018/19 cotton imports are likely to double from a year ago to a record 3.1 million bales as the drop in production to the lowest level in nine years. The cotton crop estimate for the season is reduced by 600,000 bales to 31.5 million bales.

* China is going to commence the state cotton reserve’s auction from May 5 and end on Sep 30.The reserve will offer 10,000 metric tons (about 45,000 bales) each session. The market seems to be affected bearish as it will impact global trade. Qualities are expected to be low grades, which will help sustain demand since the low-grade market within China is reportedly very tight.

* U.S growers intend to plant 13.8 million acres in 2019, down by 2 percent from last year also Up-land area is expected to total 13.5 million acres, down 2 percent from 2018 whereas American Pima area is expected to total 255,000 acres, up 2 percent from 2018. (USDA)

* Indian importers have booked nearly 19 lakh bales while export is just at 40 lakh bales. Net Outflow of cotton is near 20 lakh bales against last year’s above 50 lakh bales.

Others

* The National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federation of India has procured 749,088 tn chana under the price support scheme in eight states as of Monday, an offi-cial with the agency said.

* According to data released by farm ministry, acreage of pulses was sharply down at 67,000 ha, compared with 134,000 ha a year ago. The decline in area under pulses could be due to weak pre-monsoon rains.

* Nafed has purchased total 638799.38lakh tonne chana till 28th May-2019.Nafed has procured486781 lakh tonne in MP, 80320.69 MT in Raj,34500MT in Telangana18892.71 MT in Maharashtra15491.76 in Gujarat,2594.65 MT in AP,207.60 MT in Haryana and 10.25 MT in UP so far. Total stock of chana in Nafed custody is 22,41,547 MT right now and it may go up further as procurement is on.Out of total stock old is 1624310 MT while new is 617237 MT.The fig taken is on 27 th May-2019.

* Import curbs in India notwithstanding, Canada’s acreage of dry peas is likely to rise 12% to 1.6 mln ha in 2019-20 (Aug-Jul), Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada citing said in its monthly report for May. However, acreage under chick pea or chana and lentils or masur is seen down significantly, it said citing information from Statistics Canada.

* Chana procurement in six key growing states is gaining pace as imports of yellow peas is seen higher this year following the government’s plan to relax quantitative re-striction on imports of the latter. National Agricultural Cooperative Marketing Federa-tion of India, the Centre-run nodal agency, has procured 187,000 tn chana, an official said. This figure is 65% higher on week as of Thursday.

* As per preliminary sentiments from market sources, acreage of guar is likely to de-crease and farmers are likely to shift to other remunerative crops such as cotton and pulses. Increase in crude oil prices are not supporting gum prices as North American importers are using slick water for hydraulic fracturing.

* As per trade sources, export of guar split has increased in the month of March-19. Ex-ports in the month of March-19 are up by around 16.38% compared to previous month. India exported around 10800 tonnes of guar split in the month of March-19 at an aver-age FoB of $ 1352.14 per tonne. Of the total quantity, around 8880 tonnes and 1239.83 tonnes have been exported to China and Unites States respectively.

* ICEX rubber futures stretched losses on Friday, while in the spot market, it continued trading firm. Weak cues from the overseas market weighed on though tight supplies lend support.

* Production of natural rubber in the country is seen rising by 15.7% on year to 750,000 tn in 2019-20 (Apr-Mar), while consumption is seen growing 4.8% on year to 1.27 mln tn in the same period, Rubber Board Chairman and Executive Director K.N. Raghavan said. Rubber tapping area is projected to reach 665,000 ha in 2019-20, up from 640,000 ha in 2018-19.

* Global natural rubber production fell 5.2% on year to 2.99 mln tn in Jan-Mar, according to the Association of Natural Rubber Producing Countries.

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